Now, the cruise industry suffered another coronavirus-related blow.

On December 30, 2021, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) raised the warning for the cruise industry to the highest level: from Level 3 to Level 4.

As a result, guests have a concern about Omicron-related coronavirus infections.
Norwegian Cruise Line and after this, Royal Caribbean canceled several sailings. At the same tome time, Carnival Corporation said it had not canceled any upcoming sailings.

In this situation, cruisers wonder what the future of the cruise industry looks like and when cruise lines return to normal operations, including full capacity.

Eric Bowman, the executive editor of TravelPulse, an online travel trade platform, interviewed Charles Silvia, vice president of the International Cruise Lines Association (CLIA.) They talked about when cruise fans can expect a return to normal life and what is full capacity' means.

“There are two types of capacity to talk about; fleet capacity and onboard capacity. I can speak to the fleet capacity, and at the end of the year, we had approximately 80 percent. The CLIA cruise lines account for 95 percent of the cruise capacity worldwide, so around 275 ocean-going ships. As of December 31, we were at approximately 80 percent of that fleet being back in service. We expect that by the end of the first quarter, 100 percent of the ships will be back in service."

“As for onboard capacity, those are managed very closely by the individual cruise lines. I can tell you that I’ve already been on a cruise that was at 100 percent capacity and came home negative and had a wonderful time. The protocols were in place and working.”

“In this time, we’ve seen one or two brands that have backpedaled in terms of new bookings for January departures just so they could control the capacity of their ships, but more and more ships are expected to add capacity as this variant becomes a thing of the past.”

The latest CDC recommendations encourage cruisers who are vaccinated and non-vaccinated (primarily children) to avoid cruising.

Travel industry leaders criticized this guideline.

“An increase in reported COVID cases on cruise ships should surprise no one given the worldwide spike driven by the highly-transmissible omicron variant,” explained Zane Kerby, president and CEO of the American Society of Travel Advisors (ASTA.).

"The difference between enjoying a cruise vacation and visiting your local grocery store or restaurant, however, is the extraordinarily stringent anti-COVID measures put in place voluntarily by the cruise lines, in close consultation with the CDC. These measures include testing, vaccination, sanitation, mask-wearing, and other science-backed measures, as well as protocols to respond to potential cases of COVID-19."

As you know, I hold a Ph.D. degree in Sports Science and believe in facts, not opinions.

Facts about the cruising industry are as follows.

• More than 100 cruise liners have returned to US waters, transporting more than 2 million people from a US port since the end of June 2021.
• The cruise industry is the only industry in the U.S. travel and tourism sector requiring vaccination and testing for crew members and guests.
• The vaccination rate onboard a cruise ship exceeds 95 percent, significantly higher than that of the entire U.S. population, which hovers at 62 percent.
• The cruise industry conducts almost 10 million tests a week in the US alone. This is 21 times higher than the testing rates in the United States.
• The latest data shows that even with higher testing rates, the cruise industry achieves significantly lower COVID-19 incidence rates - 33 percent lower than on land.
• The CDC has a color-coding system for cruise ships. A cruise ship can be identified as "yellow" and is subject to CDC surveillance. So, the ship is yellow-coded if a threshold of 0.10 percent or more of its passengers. This means that, for example, 7 out of 6,500 guests have tested positive in the last seven days. Or if at least one crew member has tested positive.

Honesty, I feel like a repetition of the first quoter of 2020 when we deal with mass cancellations. Our agency experienced cancellations due to fear of being sick on ship, sickness before cruising, and positive test results without symptoms.

I predict that the cruise industry will be shut down for a while and start over again slowly in April – May. Then, towards summer, we will see ships that return to service. 100% capacity will be just before Thanksgiving.

Cruising or not cruising is a personal decision.

Yes, cruise ships are the safest mean of vacationing. In my opinion, the cruise industry is the victim of its own highest standards. This is because ships have to report to CDC all cases of sickness immediately.

No one knows what happened in all-inclusive resorts in Mexico or the Caribbean. Even with virus outbreaks that don't have to report to CDC. Airlines don't have any testing protocols, even for 20+ hours flights. – No one knows if they received a virus from next seat neighbor.

I don't press my clients to take a cruise and ignore CDC's recommendations. I have more than a hundred clients who have cruised successfully since July 2021. I had only one situation when the guest returned sick. – It was on Symphony of the Seas in December 2021 sailing.

My suggestions to you:

• Carefully evaluate your own risk of cruising.
  Take responsibility for circumstances.
• Have plans A, B, and C. What happens if you are sick on ship? What happens if you are hospitalized in the port of call. – Do you have a passport to fly back to the USA?
• Purchase travel insurance for third-party immediately. Some travel insurance companies require purchasing the insurance 21 days after booking is made.
• Work with a travel advisor you trust. Forget about online agencies. – Better pricing doesn't compensate for lack of support when you need it the most.

I hope that this post was worth reading. Please share it and let me know if you want to talk to me regarding your vacation strategy and travel opportunities.

Feel free to discuss options for your travel in 2022-2023 with me.

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